SI / 03Modelling & valuation2024

CSL Limited · Equity Valuation & Analyst Report

Investment management · ASX biotech blue-chip

Equity researchRelative valuation16-name peer setASX biotechTeam lead (5)

CSL Limited · Equity Valuation & Analyst Report

Led a team of five through a full equity valuation on CSL Limited. Combined DCF and relative-valuation methodology with a 16-name biotech peer set (Novartis, Roche, AbbVie, Eli Lilly, Moderna, Gilead, Merck, Novo Nordisk and others) on EV/EBIT and EV/EBITDA. Sensitivity tables across WACC, terminal growth, and FCFF. Triangulated to a sell recommendation that beat market consensus by 5%. Built from FactSet fundamentals across nine years.

Interactive — simplified FCFF DCFillustrative figures

WACC 7.0%Terminal growth 2.5%

Implied value / shareA$289

-3.5% vs A$300 market priceSELL

Implied value per share across WACC and terminal growth assumptions
WACC \ g	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.0%	301	336	380	440	524
6.5%	268	295	329	373	432
7.0%	241	263	289	323	366
7.5%	218	236	258	284	317
8.0%	199	214	232	253	279

DCF above market priceDCF below market pricetap a cell to set the sliders

Simplified from the full model: FCFF of A$5.2B grown 8% p.a. for 5 years, Gordon terminal value thereafter, net debt A$11B, 483M shares. Reference price A$300 at time of coverage. Figures are illustrative, not investment advice.

View the report →Open the valuation .xlsx →View the DCF deck →Open the DCF .xlsx →

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